Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Courtney Saunders MD
Courtney Saunders MD

Elara is a seasoned betting analyst with a passion for data-driven strategies and casino gaming insights.