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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.